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Documento CEDE No.33 2014. The Performance of Risk Adjustment Models in Colombian Competitive Health Insurance Market

We introduce new risk groups to a standard capitation formula and evaluate risk selection incentives of insurers. The study uses a unique data set of almost 24 million affiliates to Government’s mandatory health insurance system. This data set is very rich in the sense of reporting all claims during year 2010, basic demographic variables, initial diagnostic, health services, pharmaceuticals used, etc. It compromises more than 300 million claims. We construct two diagnostic related groups: an adaptation of the 3M algorithm, and a ad hoc diagnostic related group constructed by the authors. Using standard linear capitations formulas we evaluate incentives for cream skimming using several measures. In general, results show a notable improvement in the explanatory power of health expenditures by introducing the ad hoc diagnostic related groups to the standard Colombian risk adjustment formula. With the new risk groups the R2 of the model is 13.53% as opposed to 1.45% of the current formula. Furthermore, for users in the highest expenditure quintile, expected expenditure is 71% of actual expenditure, as opposed to 27% under the current formula. This suggest there is much space for improving the current Colombian capitation formula using information that is currently available.

Documento CEDE No.32 2014: A derivation of the optimal answer-copying index and some applications

Multiple choice exams are frequently used as an efficient and objective instrument to evaluate knowledge. Nevertheless, they are more vulnerable to answer-copying than tests based on open questions. Several statistical tests (known as indices) have been proposed to detect cheating but to the best of our knowledge they all lack a mathematical support that guarantees optimality in any sense. This work aims at filling this void by deriving the uniform most powerful (UMP) test assuming the response distribution is known. In practice we must estimate a behavioral model that yields a response distribution for each question. We calculate the empirical type-I and type-II error rates for several indices, that assume different behavioral models, using simulations based on real data from twelve nation wide multiple choice exams taken by 5th and 9th graders in Colombia. We find that the index with the highest power among those studied, subject to the restriction of preserving the type-I error, is the one that uses a nominal response model for item answering, conditions on the answers of the individual suspected of being the source of copy and calculates critical values via a normal approximation. This index was first studied by Wollack (1997) and later by W. Van der Linden and Sotaridona (2006) and is superior to the indices studied and developed by Wesolowsky (2000) and Frary, Tideman, and Watts (1977). Furthermore, we compare the performance of the indices on examination rooms with different levels of proctoring and find that increasing the level of proctoring can reduce copying by as much as 50% and that simple strategies such as having different students answer different portions of the test at different times canal so reduce cheating by over 50%. Finally, a Bonferroni type false discovery rate procedure is used to detect massive cheating. The application is straightforward and we believe it could be use to make entire examination rooms retake an exam under stricter surveillance conditions.

Documento CEDE No.29 2014: Base de datos sobre resultados electorales CEDE, 1958 – 2011

Este documento presenta la estructura de la primera base de datos que compila todos los resultados electorales del país desde 1958 hasta 2011. Contiene información detallada sobre las elecciones de alcaldes, gobernadores, concejales, asambleístas, cámara y senado, y presidencia. Adicionalmente, este documento presenta un listado de observaciones e instrucciones que se deben tener en cuenta para el manejo de la información.

Documento CEDE No.25 2014: Gasping for Air: Soccer players’ performance at high-altitude

A number of soccer officials have long debated whether to ban soccer games played at high altitudes above sea level. This paper explores soccer player’s performance when playing at high elevations using data obtained from the Copa Libertadores. I propose a range of direct indicators of player performance when playing at high altitudes: the number of total passes, the number of passes in the opposition’s half, and the number of successful passes. I also review the effects on the percentage of successful passes and the percentage of successful passes in the opponents’ half of the field. The performance indicators compare player outcomes when playing away above 2,500 meters (8,202 feet) relative to when they play away below that threshold. The results suggest that, for the most part, altitude has no impact. It does, however, have an impact on variables related to the way a player performs when faced with risky decisions. In particular, I find that the percentage of successful passes rises by about 5.6 percentage points, mostly driven by each player’s behavior in his own half. My findings suggest that players (and coaches) adapt to the conditions.

Documento CEDE No.24: Engineers, Innovative Capacity and Development in the Americas

Using newly collected national and sub-national data and historical case studies, this paper argues that differences in innovative capacity, captured by the density of engineers at the dawn of the Second Industrial Revolution, are important to explaining present in come differences, and, in particular, the poor performance of Latin America relative to North America. This remains the case after controlling for literacy, other higher order human capital, such as lawyers, as well as demand side elements that might be confounded with engineering. The analysis then finds that agglomeration, certain geographical fundamentals, and extractive institutions such as slavery affect innovative capacity. However, a large effect associated with being a Spanish colony remains suggesting important inherited factors.

Documento CEDE No.23 2014: Why Don’t Poor Countries Do R&D?

Using a global panel on research and development (R&D) expenditures, this paper documents that on average poor countries do far less R&D than rich as a share of GDP. This is arguably counter intuitive since the gains from doing the R&D required for technological catch up are thought to be very high and Griffith et al. (2004) have documented that in the OECD returns increase dramatically with distance from the frontier. Exploiting recent advances in instrumental variables in a varying coefficient context we find than the rates of return follow an inverted U: they rise with distance to the frontier and then fall thereafter, potentially turning negative for the poorest countries. The findings are consistent with the importance of factors complementary to R&D, such as education, the quality of scientific infrastructure and the overall functioning of the national innovation system, and the quality of the private sector, which become increasingly weak with distance from the frontier and the absence of which can offset the catch up effect. China’s and India’s explosive growth in R&D investment trajectories in spite of expected low returns may be justified by their importing the complementary factors in the form of multinational corporations who do most of the patentable research.

Documento CEDE No.22 2014: Convergence to the Managerial Frontier

Using detailed survey data on management practices, this paper uses recent advances in unconditional quartile analysis to study the changes in the within country distribution of management quality associated with country convergence to the managerial frontier. It then decomposes the contribution of potential explanatory factors to the distributional changes. The US emerges as the frontier country, not because of on average better management, but because its best firms are far better than those of its close competitors. Part of the process of convergence to the frontier across the development process represents a trimming of the left tail, much es movement of the central mass and, for rich countries, it is actually the best firms than lag the frontier benchmark. Among potential explanatory variables that may drive convergence, ownership and human capital appear critical, the former especially for poorer countries and that latter for richer suggesting that the mechanics of convergence change across the process. These variables lose their explanatory power as firm and average country management quality rises. Hence, once in the advanced country range, the factors than improve management quality are less easy to document and hence influence.

Documento CEDE No.20 2014: Tendencias históricas y regionales de la adjudicación de baldíos en Colombia

El presente documento hace una revisión de la política de reforma agraria en Colombia desde principios del siglo XX hasta 2012, caracterizada por la adjudicación de baldíos a campesinos. En este documento, se busca dar cuenta de la magnitud e importancia de esta política pública que ha perdurado a lo largo del tiempo y con una dinámica continua desde sus inicios, con el fin de aportar a la amplia literatura sobre reforma agraria en Colombia que, si bien analiza las tensiones propias de esta política no cuenta con datos desagregados del comportamiento de la política para más de un siglo. Igualmente se hace un recorrido regional que evidencia la dinámica de la reforma agraria en diferentes regiones a lo largo del tiempo.

Documento CEDE No.17 2014: Dinámica de los precios del suelo urbano en Bogotá 1970-2012

En este texto se examina la evolución de los precios de los terrenos destinados a vivienda en Bogotá entre 1970 y 2012. Las cifras se refieren a siete áreas de la ciudad durante estos 42 años, y es posible tener estimaciones para tres estratos de ingreso y un promedio general. En el texto se analiza la relevancia para la interpretación de estos fenómenos de los instrumentos conceptuales desarrollados en la tradición marxista (Samuel Jaramillo- Hacia una teoría de la renta del suelo urbano- Segunda edición revisada y ampliada Ediciones Uniandes 2009). Se examinan por lo tanto tres tipos de movimientos de los precios del suelo urbano: Movimientos estructurales generales, Movimientos coyunturales generales y Movimientos Estructurales Particulares. Se incluye además un cálculo de la rentabilidad de la inversión en tierras para este período y se le contrasta con otras opciones comparables.

Documento CEDE No.13 2014: Adaptación del Banco de la República a los cambios en la política monetaria, cambiaria y de crédito: 1923-2013

Adaptación del Banco de la República a los cambios en la política monetaria, cambiaria y de crédito: 1923-2013

El artículo discute como el Banco de la República de Colombia se ajustó durante un periodo largo a los cambios en la teoría y la legislación de la política monetaria, cambiaria y de crédito en el país. En el periodo la legislación transformo sus funciones, responsabilidades, y esquema de gobierno varias veces, pero la entidad logro mantener una cultura y seriedad administrativa muy sólida.